This study aims to examine the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on the quality of budgeting information and to analyze the moderating role of digital maturity in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-correlational in method, employing a sequential mixed quantitative-qualitative approach. Financial data from 25 companies over the period 2021–2025 (1400–1404), totaling 125 firm-year observations, were extracted from audited financial statements and combined with data obtained from a digital maturity questionnaire. Multiple regression models with balanced panel data were used to test the hypotheses.
The results revealed that, contrary to some previous findings, the use of artificial intelligence does not have a significant effect on the quality of budgeting information (β = 0.1051, Prob = 0.456). Furthermore, digital maturity did not significantly moderate the relationship between artificial intelligence and budgeting information quality (β = 0.0089, Prob = 0.876). These findings indicate that the introduction of artificial intelligence into budgeting processes, merely through technological investment, does not necessarily lead to improved information quality. Factors such as data quality and integrity, information systems coordination, and the availability of digitally skilled human resources appear to play a decisive role in the actual effectiveness of this technology. In this regard, the results are consistent with the IT productivity paradox and suggest that in the early stages of technology adoption, the expected benefits of artificial intelligence may not be fully realized due to weaknesses in organizational and operational infrastructures. Therefore, moving toward the effective use of artificial intelligence in budgeting requires simultaneous attention to the development of data infrastructures, systems integration, and the enhancement of organizational digital maturity.